TUESDAY,  NOVEMBER 25,  2008

SOBER UP II

Posted at 6:45 p.m. ET

Early today, in Sober Up I, we revealed the sad state of America's nuclear deterrent, a reminder that there's a world outside money and stock market results.  Now, here is another area of grave concern, the possibility of an EMP attack on the United States.  The issue has been brought up before, and then quickly forgotten.  With Iran making the kind of progress it's making in nuclear weapons, we dare not forget this time:

The attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, have proven how vulnerable we are. On that day, Islamic terrorists flew planes into our buildings. It is not unreasonable to believe that if they obtain nuclear weapons, they might use them to destroy us. And yet too many policy makers have rejected three basic facts about our position in the world today:

First, as the defender of the Free World, the U.S. will be the target of destruction or, more likely, strategic marginalization by Russia, China and the radical Islamic world.

Second, this marginalization and threat of destruction is possible because the U.S. is not so powerful that it can dictate military and political affairs to the world whenever it wants. The U.S. has the nuclear capability to vanquish any foe, but is not likely to use it except as a last resort.

Third, America will remain in a condition of strategic vulnerability as long as it fails to build defenses against the most powerful political and military weapons arrayed against us: ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Such missiles can be used to destroy our country, blackmail or paralyze us.

That is clear thinking.  It will be rejected by the intellectual fashion plates in the universities and the press.  But it remains clear thinking.

Think about this scenario: An ordinary-looking freighter ship heading toward New York or Los Angeles launches a missile from its hull or from a canister lowered into the sea. It hits a densely populated area. A million people are incinerated. The ship is then sunk. No one claims responsibility. There is no firm evidence as to who sponsored the attack, and thus no one against whom to launch a counterstrike.

The politics of fear, the politics of fear.  Say it over and over.  You might even start to believe it.  But, again, it remains clear thinking.

But as terrible as that scenario sounds, there is one that is worse. Let us say the freighter ship launches a nuclear-armed Shahab-3 missile off the coast of the U.S. and the missile explodes 300 miles over Chicago. The nuclear detonation in space creates an electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

Gamma rays from the explosion, through the Compton Effect, generate three classes of disruptive electromagnetic pulses, which permanently destroy consumer electronics, the electronics in some automobiles and, most importantly, the hundreds of large transformers that distribute power throughout the U.S. All of our lights, refrigerators, water-pumping stations, TVs and radios stop running. We have no communication and no ability to provide food and water to 300 million Americans.

This is what is referred to as an EMP attack, and such an attack would effectively throw America back technologically into the early 19th century...

...Common sense would suggest that, absent food and water, the number of people who could die of deprivation and as a result of social breakdown might run well into the millions.

Who could the culprit be?  I wonder.

Twice in the last eight years, in the Caspian Sea, the Iranians have tested their ability to launch ballistic missiles in a way to set off an EMP.

Always attributing evil motives to peace-loving peoples.  How American.

The only solution to this problem is a robust, multilayered missile-defense system. The most effective layer in this system is in space, using space-based interceptors that destroy an enemy warhead in its ascent phase when it is easily identifiable, slower, and has not yet deployed decoys. We know it can work from tests conducted in the early 1990s. We have the technology. What we lack is the political will to make it a reality.

Sadly, we will probably continue to lack that will, especially with people like John Kerry running the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Finally...

An EMP attack is not one from which America could recover as we did after Pearl Harbor. Such an attack might mean the end of the United States and most likely the Free World. It is of the highest priority to have a president and policy makers not merely acknowledge the problem, but also make comprehensive missile defense a reality as soon as possible.

Enough said.  Now it's time for action.

November 25, 2008.      Permalink          

MARKET CLOSE - 4:39 P.M. ET:  The Dow closed up only 36 points, essentially ending the brief rally surrounding Obama's naming of his economic team.  We're back to reality.

REPORT - GATES TO STAY - 3:26 P.M. ET:   Sources tell ABC News that Defense Secretary Robert Gates will be staying on in the top Pentagon job, for at least the first year of the Obama administration. "It is a done deal," a source close to the process tells ABC News.

COMMENT:  We could do a lot worse.  The idea is to keep Chuck Hagel's hands off national defense.

EXPE RTISE FROM A READER - 1:21 P.M. ET:   This morning, under the title, Sober Up I, we published a warning about the state of our nuclear deterrence.  Reader Tom Bullock was a nuclear-weapons professional, and sends us this informed letter: 

Having worked for thirty  years in weapons business I can attest to the woeful status of our nuclear weapons capabilities. When the Rocky Flats plant near Denver, CO, stopped  manufacturing plutonium triggers, or more commonly referred to as “pits” we  lost the ability to build new weapons to replace the aging units in the  stockpile. To my knowledge, the backup facility at the Las Alamos National  Laboratory (LANL) has yet to demonstrate the capability to fabricate a  “diamond stamp pit." This exceedingly, precise criteria is difficult to  duplicate requiring years of experience to attain the ability to machine a  tantalizing and unforgiving material such as plutonium.
 
The  Department of Energy (DOE), a top-heavy bureaucracy, has for years, going  back to the early 1990s, attempted to reconstitute the weapons manufacturing  capacity. The first attempt was called Complex 21, whose mission was to have  a new and more efficient plants operating in the early 2000s. This program  morphed into the Weapons Complex Reconfiguration Project with an expanded  scope. I was part of the Fluor Daniel project team that provided DOE with  design data for the new complex. The scope of this program was eventually  reduced to developing plans for a new tritium supply only.  
 
When I retired over eight years ago, DOE was still struggling  with when and how could the nation revive the weapons program as nuclear  weapons in the stockpile continue to corrode and experience higher radiation  levels as the plutonium slowly decays.

The new president is on the political left.  Powerful elements in his party pride themselves in their showy hostility to national defense.  This is a critical situation that the mainstream media continues to ignore. 

The word "crisis" is overused.  But I'd say this is a real one.

WELCOME TO POWER, MR. OBAMA - 12:48 P.M. ET:   Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The decline in U.S. house prices accelerated in September and the economy shrank in the third quarter at a faster pace than first estimated as the grip of the credit crunch tightened.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 17.4 percent from a year earlier. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product dropped an annual 0.5 percent as household spending slid the most since 1980. While consumer confidence rose this month, the Conference Board’s gauge remained near the lowest on record.

COMMENT:  The president-elect may well have to deal with a public backlash if Americans conclude that the vast billions being spent aren't helping them personally.  That's one reason why tax cuts are so critical.

THE BILL FOR BILL - 10:29 A.M. ET:  (CNSNews.com) - Four major banks, including one that collapsed, two that received federal bailout money and one that filed for bankruptcy this past September, paid former President Clinton $2.1 million for 13 speeches he delivered on their behalf between 2004-2007, according to Senate financial disclosure statements filed by Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).

COMMENT:  What did they actually get for that money?  His financial advice?

GEORGIA, GEORGIA

Posted at 9:12 a.m. ET

First the bad news:  The election isn't over. 

Now the good news:  There may be some good news.

There's a runoff Tuesday in Georgia, starring incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss against Dem challenger Jim Martin.  The election is critical.  If Martin wins, and if the Dems pick up the Minnesota seat held by Norm Coleman, the Democratic majority will have 60 seats, enough to break a filibuster and insure unrestrained Democratic rule.  But Chambliss, according to The Washington Times, is holding his own:

Mr. Martin is behind in polls, has half the cash of his opponent and early-voting turnout among black voters is stagnating - a crucial block for any Democrat in this mostly conservative state where Republicans also hold the other U.S. Senate seat, the governor's office and majorities in both houses of the state General Assembly.

That doesn't bode well for Mr. Martin and Senate Democrats eyeing an unexpected victory Tuesday to put them one vote away from a filibuster-breaking 60-vote majority and the power to ram the party's agenda through the chamber.

And...

"The holiday, the cold weather, the relatively lackluster campaign [by Mr. Martin] will put Senator Chambliss in the winning column," said University of Georgia political science professor Audrey A. Haynes. "With all of the potential issues that are positive for Martin and negative for Chambliss, it should be a Martin win, albeit a bit of a squeaker. But there just doesn't seem to be any fire."

Good.  Quench that fire, quench that fire.

Both campaigns overhauled their get-out-the-vote drives to counter the voter fatigue typical in runoffs. But Mr. Martin needs more of a turnout boost than his opponent. He finished nearly 110,000 votes behind Mr. Chambliss in the general election, despite the enthusiasm generated by Mr. Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket.

We can win this.  We'll look for any good news we can get.

November 25, 2008.      Permalink          

THE SAFETY RACE - 8:25 A.M. ET:  From The New York Times:  The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety designated 72 vehicles as winners of their top safety pick award. The award recognizes vehicles that do the best job of protecting motorists in front, side and rear crashes and have anti-rollover technology called Electronic Stability Control, or ESC.

COMMENT:   Of the 72, only 19 are American, about 25 percent.  Not a good showing, especially when the auto makers are begging for government money.

SOBER UP I

Posted at 8:17 a.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal, as it often does, brings us back to reality, reminding us that money isn't the most serious problem out there.  This is the first of two pieces we'll run today dealing with the nation's defenses, and the gaping holes in same.  The first, I think, will shock you: 

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. nuclear weapons program has suffered from neglect. Warheads are old. There's been no new warhead design since the 1980s, and the last time one was tested was 1992, when the U.S. unilaterally stopped testing. Gen. Kevin Chilton, who heads U.S. Strategic Command, has been sounding the alarm, as has Defense Secretary Robert Gates. So far few seem to be listening.

Even our "soft" allies are doing a better job:

The U.S. is alone among the five declared nuclear nations in not modernizing its arsenal. The U.K. and France are both doing so. Ditto China and Russia. "We're the only ones who aren't," Gen. Chilton says. Congress has refused to fund the Department of Energy's Reliable Replacement Warhead program beyond the concept stage and this year it cut funding even for that.

Please notice all the details you've been given on this story by the mainstream media.  Apparently The New York Times has better things to do, like revealing national secrets.

Congress's behavior should finally convince us why it's necessary to win back the House and Senate in two years.

Our nuclear weapons are old, old, old, General Chilton says.  Some of them still use vacuum tubes.

And here comes the punch line: "This is the technology that we have . . . today." The technology in the weapons the U.S. relies on for its nuclear deterrent dates back to before many of the people in the room were born.

And yet, we are spending trillions to bail out companies with negligent executives.  But we scrimp on the deterrent that keeps us safe.  And more modern weapons are also more secure:

It's possible to design a terrorist-proof nuke, the general says. "We have the capability to design into these weapons today systems that, should they fall into wrong hands -- [should] someone either attempt to detonate them or open them up to take the material out -- that they would become not only nonfunctional, but the material inside would become unusable."

And get this:

The general stresses the need to "revitalize" the infrastructure for producing nuclear weapons. The U.S. hasn't built a nuclear weapon in more than two decades and the manufacturing infrastructure has disappeared. The U.S. today "has no nuclear weapon production capacity," he says flatly. "We can produce a handful of weapons in a laboratory but we've taken down the manufacturing capability." At the height of the Cold War, the U.S. produced 3,000 weapons a year.

And...

There's also the issue of human capital, which is graying. It's "every bit as important as the aging of the weapon systems," the general says. "The last individual to have worked on an actual nuclear test in this country, the last scientist or engineer, will have retired or passed on in the next five years." The younger generation has no practical experience with designing or building nuclear warheads.

This is genuinely alarming, yet the nation is not alarmed. And the views of the president-elect?

The president-elect likes to talk about a nuclear-free world and has said, "I will not authorize the development of new nuclear weapons." He has not weighed in on the Reliable Replacement Warhead program.

Finally...

Gen. Chilton says the modernization of U.S. nuclear weapons is "an important issue for the next administration in their first year." At the very least, he says, the U.S. needs to "go out and do those studies" on design, cost and implementation. As for his own role: "You've got to talk about it. You can't just one day show up and say we have a problem."

This should have the highest priority.  Our deterrent is our lifeline.  But I fear that the leftists in Congress will consider it a point of pride to continue to do nothing.  They're for peace, you know.

November 25,  2008.      Permalink          

THE CASH BOX - 7:18 A.M. ET:  The president-elect indicated yesterday, in announcing his economic team, that he favored a huge stimulus package, and his Democratic congress will apparently present him with one on inauguration day.  Further, the feds are moving in to bail out Citigroup.  Now, I've noticed there is a growing buzz centering on a question:  Where will we get all this money?  The subtext of that is, will we need foreign help?  Watch for these questions to grow in the public debate in the weeks ahead.  Bloomberg notes:

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

Important money.

MONDAY,  NOVEMBER 24,  2008

EL RUSHMO

Posted at 9:25 p.m. ET

One thing I'm able to do on days when I have to travel to meetings or briefings is to catch up on talk radio.  As you know, conservative talk radio is threatened by the possible reimposition of the so-called "fairness doctrine," a move some liberals are talking up.  There are also other governmental gimmicks that can threaten its existence, like "localism," where stations would be forced by the Federal Communications Commission to respect "local" interests and views. 

I was listening to Rush Limbaugh on the way into New York City today.  He is, more than anyone else, the symbol of conservative talk radio.  Some like him, others loathe him.  But what struck me today, as it has many times, is what a superb broadcaster Rush is.  What also struck me is how well prepared he is.  Yes, he can be over the top.  Yes, we sometimes wonder if he's serious about everything he says.  But Rush knows his stuff.  He can make an argument based on facts.  He opposes and he can attack, but never viciously.  He goes about his politics with a little twinkle in his eye, which comes through even on radio.  There is substance to his show.  I always feel I learn something.

I simply cannot understand the attacks on Rush as a "hate" broadcaster.  I've never heard hate, whereas I heard it all the time on Air America, the failed liberal talk network.  Rush is entertaining, and informational.  Hate is not part of the package.

At a time when the mainstream press is completely in the tank for President-elect Obama and the liberal legions, we need Rush, and we should defend him against the slurs and false charges of an irrational opposition.  Rush didn't get to where he did by being poor at what he does.  He got to the top by being very good. 

Conservative talk radio is, today, truly "alternative" radio.  It deals with issues that the mainstream media ignore or underplay.  It is important, not just for those of our persuasion, but for the national debate.  Rush is a critical part of that debate, and he must continue.

November 24, 2008.      Permalink           

COLMES AWAY - 8:10 P.M. ET:  Alan Colmes will leave Hannity & Colmes, a staple of the Fox News Channel, at the end of the year, it was announced today.  He will remain with Fox, with which he has a new contract.

COMMENT:  Colmes is a good guy and a good sport.  He's been the liberal half of the program, and I always enjoyed listening to him.  There is no word if he's to be replaced, but I hope they do put in a thoughtful liberal.  Good debate is healthy.

NOW TIGER CAN GET A MERCEDES - 7:32 P.M. ET:  From The New York Times:  General Motors and Tiger Woods are ending their longtime endorsement agreement one year early. The automaker is looking to cut costs and Woods plans to spend more time with his family, a General Motors spokesman said Monday.

COMMENT:  Wait, wait.  You mean endorsing Buicks took a lot of time from the family?  Where did he have to go to say, "Buy a Buick"?

THE BUSH GUYS WIN ONE! - 7:27 P.M. ET:  A major legal victory in the war on terror.  The Holy Land Foundation, one of those "charitable" groups, has been found guilty on all counts in a retrial in Dallas.  There was a-weepin' and a-wailin', but not on the government side this time.  The Dallas News account is here.   Scott Johnson's analysis at Power Line is here.  With the evidence, we can win these cases in court.  It's an important day.

MORE DOW - AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  The Dow is now up 351, as Obama is about to announce his economic team on TV.

COMMENT:  Caution.  News like this doesn't have much of an effect beyond a few days. The holiday will intervene.  Let's see what economic developments actually occur.  

HOW THE DOW? - AT 11:35 A.M. ET:  The dow is up 300.  This, we assume, is because Wall Street likes the names of Obama's economic team, and Citigroup will apparently be rescued by the feds. 

THROUGH FRENCH EYES

Posted at 9:01 a.m. ET

Reader Hunter Schultz alerts us to a wonderful - just wonderful - article by a French soldier serving close to American troops in Afghanistan.  Hunter got this from his friend, Renee Nielsen, in Mumbai, India, which shows the power of the internet to bring us material that we'll never see in the mainstream media. 

Some things should not be condensed.  Herewith, the whole piece, at times a bit awkwardly translated, but highly recommended:

“We have shared our daily life with two US units for quite a while - they are the first and fourth companies of a prestigious infantry battalion whose name I will withhold for the sake of military secrecy. To the common man it is a unit just like any other. But we live with them and got to know them, and we henceforth know that we have the honor to live with one of the most renowned units of the US Army - one that the movies brought to the public as series showing “ordinary soldiers thrust into extraordinary events”. Who are they, those soldiers from abroad, how is their daily life, and what support do they bring to the men of our OMLT every day ? Few of them belong to the Easy Company, the one the TV series focuses on. This one nowadays is named Echo Company, and it has become the support company.

They have a terribly strong American accent - from our point of view the language they speak is not even English. How many times did I have to write down what I wanted to say rather than waste precious minutes trying various pronunciations of a seemingly common word? Whatever state they are from, no two accents are alike and they even admit that in some crisis situations they have difficulties understanding each other.

Heavily built, fed at the earliest age with Gatorade, proteins and creatine - they are all heads and shoulders taller than us and their muscles remind us of Rambo. Our frames are amusingly skinny to them - we are wimps, even the strongest of us - and because of that they often mistake us for Afghans.

Here we discover America as it is often depicted : their values are taken to their paroxysm, often amplified by promiscuity lack of privacy and the loneliness of this outpost in the middle of that Afghan valley. Honor, motherland - everything here reminds of that : the American flag floating in the wind above the outpost, just like the one on the post parcels. Even if recruits often originate from the hearth of American cities and gang territory, no one here has any goal other than to hold high and proud the star spangled banner. Each man knows he can count on the support of a whole people who provides them through the mail all that an American could miss in such a remote front-line location : books, chewing gums, razorblades, Gatorade, toothpaste etc. in such way that every man is aware of how much the American people backs him in his difficult mission. And that is a first shock to our preconceptions : the American soldier is no individualist. The team, the group, the combat team are the focus of all his attention.

And they are impressive warriors! We have not come across bad ones, as strange at it may seem to you when you know how critical French people can be. Even if some of them are a bit on the heavy side, all of them provide us everyday with lessons in infantry know-how. Beyond the wearing of a combat kit that never seem to discomfort them (helmet strap, helmet, combat goggles, rifles etc.) the long hours of watch at the outpost never seem to annoy them in the slightest. On the one square meter wooden tower above the perimeter wall they stand the five consecutive hours in full battle rattle and night vision goggles on top, their sight unmoving in the directions of likely danger. No distractions, no pauses, they are like statues nights and days. At night, all movements are performed in the dark - only a handful of subdued red lights indicate the occasional presence of a soldier on the move. Same with the vehicles whose lights are covered - everything happens in pitch dark even filling the fuel tanks with the Japy pump.

And combat ? If you have seen Rambo you have seen it all - always coming to the rescue when one of our teams gets in trouble, and always in the shortest delay. That is one of their tricks : they switch from T-shirt and sandals to combat ready in three minutes. Arriving in contact with the enemy, the way they fight is simple and disconcerting : they just charge! They disembark and assault in stride, they bomb first and ask questions later - which cuts any pussyfooting short.

We seldom hear any harsh word, and from 5 AM onwards the camp chores are performed in beautiful order and always with excellent spirit. A passing American helicopter stops near a stranded vehicle just to check that everything is alright; an American combat team will rush to support ours before even knowing how dangerous the mission is - from what we have been given to witness, the American soldier is a beautiful and worthy heir to those who liberated France and Europe.

To those who bestow us with the honor of sharing their combat outposts and who everyday give proof of their military excellence, to those who pay the daily tribute of America’s army’s deployment on Afghan soil, to those we owe this article, ourselves hoping that we will always remain worthy of them and to always continue hearing them say that we are all the same band of brothers."

It is inspiring to read things like that.  I wish I could read those words in The New York Times or The Washington Post.  Maybe - miracles occur - I will some day.  But let us be grateful to the French soldier who paid such a warm tribute to our soldiers.

November 24, 2008.       Permalink          

CHAVEZ SHOVED - AT 8:08 A.M. ET:   CARACAS, Venezuela — President Hugo Chávez’s supporters suffered defeat in several state and municipal races on Sunday, with the opposition retaining power in oil-rich Zulia, the country’s most populous state, and winning crucial races here in the capital.
The losses were Mr. Chávez’s second setback at the polls in the past year, after the defeat of a proposed constitutional overhaul last December that would have enhanced his powers. The results will put opponents of Mr. Chávez in charge of areas with about a third of Venezuela’s 26 million people.

COMMENT:  There is occasionally good news.  Savor it.  Since Hugo Chavez got wounded, I'm sure Jimmy Carter suspects election fraud.

RICE CAKES - AT 7:42 A.M. ET:  From the Jerusalem Post:  The fact that Israel and the Palestinians have not reached a peace agreement and will likely fail to do so by the end of 2008 is "largely due to" political turmoil in Israel, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday night.  "Even though there was not an agreement by the end of the year, it is really largely because of the political situation in Israel," Rice told reporters.

COMMENT:  Leave it to Condi Rice to sour the milk just as she's leaving office.  Like most products of the Bush 41 regime, and like all disciples of Brent Scowcroft, she has trouble distinguishing America's friends from its enemies.  Israeli politics are a factor, but Hamas controls Gaza, Hezbollah is on Israel's northern border, the Palestinian Authority is in chaos, and Iran threatens.  Rice might have mentioned these things.  The chill here is that Scowcroft apparently is influencing President-elect Obama.  Obama can do better.  Much better.   

THE BAMWATCH

Posted at 6:45 a.m. ET

A few words about personnel in a new administration.

The consensus in our precincts is that Mr. Obama has made some good choices thus far to fill the positions in his administration.  No, he hasn't resurrected Milton Friedman, and we can't expect him to try.  But, so far, for a center-left administration, not bad, not bad at all.  If Obama can put up with Hillary's antics and chronic dishonesty, we probably can as well.

But please remember two things:  First, people aren't policies.  We like to think they are, and we satisfy ourselves by saying that "sound" people will make good policy choices.  But history cautions us.  "Sound" people get used to the trappings of office and the great parties in Georgetown salons.  It's amazing how flexible they suddenly become once they take an oath.  They serve at the pleasure of the president, and displeasing him is not an option.  It will be Mr. Obama who sets the policies, and his appointees who carry them out.  We have not heard those policies explained in detail, so we must be careful.

Second, people can be bypassed.  The most glittering names can suddenly find themselves with little to do.  Colin Powell was turned into a messenger by President Bush.  Cyrus Vance resigned as secretary of state in the Carter government because his advice was rejected.  And, of course, Supreme Court justices are famous, or notorious, for going their own way once the robes are fitted. 

So, good people don't necessary translate into good government.  Although I think he overstated the case and went trendy, David Halberstam illustrated that argument in "The Best and the Brightest," about the brilliant stars of the Kennedy and Johnson administration who handled Vietnam in a less-than-stellar manner. 

What will the president do?  What will his appointees be asked to do?  Those are the key questions.

November 24, 2008.      Permalink